2027: El-Rufai's political gambit stalls as Northwest politicians reject SDP

 

2027: El-Rufai’s Political Gambit Stalls as Northwest Politicians Reject SDP




Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai finds himself politically stranded following his defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which has failed to gain traction across Nigeria’s North-West.

On March 10, 2025, El-Rufai officially resigned from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), citing a "misalignment of values" and promising to unite opposition leaders into a formidable force against the APC.

“As a member of the SDP, I will focus on persuading other opposition leaders to join us in forming a unified platform to challenge the APC in all elections up to 2027,” El-Rufai declared.

However, two months later, that ambition appears stalled. Despite multiple closed-door meetings, El-Rufai has failed to attract any prominent political figure in the North-West to join him. The SDP currently lacks any meaningful structure in Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, or Zamfara.

Sources say El-Rufai made “frantic efforts” to woo governors and legislators, including Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi, but all rebuffed his overtures. Instead, those leaders opted to return to the APC.

He also reportedly attempted to court the Governor of Nasarawa State without success. “None of the big names took him seriously. The perception is that SDP under El-Rufai isn’t viable,” said a source familiar with the talks.

Currently, the SDP has only two federal lawmakers: Senator Godiya Akwashiki (Nasarawa North) and Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru (Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency). Despite this limited base, El-Rufai had hoped to build momentum for the 2027 elections.

Adding to his challenges is the lingering perception that the SDP is still tied to President Bola Tinubu, due to his 1992 Senate run on the platform. This has fueled skepticism about El-Rufai’s true intentions, with some viewing his defection as a ploy rather than a genuine political shift.

“People think he’s either trying to fracture the opposition or still aligned with Tinubu. There’s deep mistrust,” said a Kaduna-based political insider.

Amid widespread rejection, El-Rufai is said to be growing increasingly frustrated. With strained ties in the APC and no clear inroads elsewhere, his political options are narrowing.

Recently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar reportedly met with El-Rufai in Abuja and encouraged him to return to the PDP. But El-Rufai, citing internal PDP turmoil and the influence of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, urged Atiku instead to join him in the SDP—an offer Atiku declined.

“He’s stuck,” a source said. “Staying with the SDP feels hopeless, but going back to the APC is another minefield. He’s still weighing a return to the PDP.”

So far, the only prominent figure to align with El-Rufai’s new political venture is comedian MC Tagwaye, known for impersonating former President Buhari—a move widely seen as symbolic rather than strategic.

“This just shows how far off course things are. Convincing a comedian isn’t the same as winning over real political players,” a source commented.

El-Rufai’s current troubles trace back to his fallout with President Tinubu after the 2023 elections. Although he played a key role in mobilizing northern support for Tinubu, his ministerial nomination was blocked over an alleged adverse security report, widely believed to be from the Department of State Services (DSS).

“He felt betrayed and abandoned by Tinubu,” said a political contact in Kebbi.

In southern Nigeria, El-Rufai’s past religious rhetoric—especially during the 2023 campaign when he defended the Muslim-Muslim ticket—continues to damage his image, particularly among Christian communities.

“He’s viewed as too divisive, especially in the South. That’s another reason his SDP movement is going nowhere,” said Adamu Maiyama, an APC stalwart in Kebbi.

What began as a bold attempt to lead a new opposition movement now appears to be an isolated and faltering gamble for El-Rufai, with diminishing prospects ahead of 2027.


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