2027 Realignments: Buhari's CPC Bloc weighs exit from APC

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2027 Realignments: Buhari’s CPC Bloc Weighs Exit from APC

The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has stirred renewed speculation about the political direction of his loyalists, especially those from the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which he founded in 2009.

Since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023, the influence of CPC stalwarts within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has steadily declined. Prominent figures like former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, have been vocal in their opposition to Tinubu’s potential re-election bid in 2027.

With Buhari gone, political analysts believe his sizeable and fiercely loyal support base—estimated at over 12 million—could become a decisive force, potentially outside the APC fold.

Emerging tensions have surfaced between the APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as both parties angle to win over Buhari’s former supporters. This development comes in the wake of comments by former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, who predicted a shift in Nigeria’s political landscape following Buhari’s death.

“Buhari’s passing marks a significant moment for Nigerian politics,” Abdulsalami said. “I believe the political terrain will change — hopefully for the better.”

In an interview, ADC interim National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi claimed that many of Buhari’s allies had already joined their coalition.

“A majority of Buhari’s loyalists are now with us,” Abdullahi said. “We have strong backing from the North, and the former President had encouraged his followers to align with us before his passing.”

He highlighted the presence of key CPC and Buhari-era figures in the ADC-led coalition, including Babachir Lawal, Abubakar Malami, Isah Pantami, Emeka Nwajuba, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola.

“These are Buhari’s people,” Abdullahi stressed. “Their positions within the coalition reflect the late president’s true political stance.”

Abdullahi also accused the APC of marginalising Buhari and his allies during his final years in power.

“Why should they stay in a party that publicly disrespected their leader and scapegoated him for Nigeria’s economic problems?” he asked. “Tinubu’s administration has blamed Buhari for almost every crisis. Why would his loyalists remain in such a party?”

Divided Ranks Within the APC

Despite the growing defections, several notable CPC-era politicians remain in the APC. These include former Nasarawa Governor Tanko Al-Makura, Senators Ibrahim Musa and Ahmed Sani, Governor Dikko Radda of Katsina, NDLEA Chairman Buba Marwa, and former VON DG Osita Okechukwu, among others.

Insiders within the party admit, however, that not all will stay. Some aggrieved members who feel sidelined since Buhari left office are reportedly exploring other political options.

Former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman—now a member of the ADC coalition—said Buhari’s death signaled the end of an era where his endorsement alone could swing elections.

Speaking on Arise TV, Lukman said, “Buhari had an unmatched influence, particularly in the North. Now, we must develop a new political culture rooted in humility and service, not personality cults.”

APC Denies Mass Defection Claims

Reacting to the defection speculations, APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, maintained that Buhari loyalists are ideologically tied to the ruling party.

“They won’t join the ADC. That’s unrealistic. They share the APC’s vision and are more at home here,” Ibrahim said.

He acknowledged that Buhari’s absence leaves a gap but viewed it as an opportunity for party reflection and internal reform.

“This is not a crisis. It’s a chance for the APC to reassess and strengthen its unity,” he added.

CPC Veterans Reject Exit Rumours

Former Communications Minister Adebayo Shittu also dismissed claims of defection to the ADC, affirming his loyalty to the APC and even announcing his ambition to run for Oyo State Governor in 2027.

“Leaving the APC isn’t even a thought,” he declared. “I’m preparing to contest, and if I secure the party ticket, I’m confident of victory.”

Shittu insisted Buhari’s death would not fracture the APC, although he acknowledged that a few disgruntled CPC members might leave.

Northern Leaders Split

Reactions among northern political elites remain mixed. Former Arewa Consultative Forum Secretary General, Anthony Sani, played down the significance of the potential fallout.

“I doubt Buhari’s passing will cause a major shift in APC strategy. He committed to the party, and his supporters are unlikely to dishonour his legacy,” Sani said.

He also questioned the ADC-led coalition’s electoral prospects, citing its lack of clear ideological distinction and the current political zoning arrangement.

“Tinubu has just one term left, and the North isn’t likely to rally behind Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar to override the zoning structure,” he concluded.

As the 2027 general elections approach, the evolving realignment within Nigeria’s political space suggests Buhari’s legacy—and his loyalists—will remain a significant factor in shaping the country’s future leadership.